content-moat-calculator

# Content Moat Calculator

Estimate the total content investment needed to establish topical authority in a niche. Analyzes competitors' content volume and quality to give you a go/no-go decision before investing months of work. Answers the question: "How many pages do I need to dominate this topic?"

## Stage

S3: Blog & SEO — This decides what blog content to build. It's the feasibility check that saves you from starting a content strategy you can't finish.

## When to Use

- User is deciding whether to invest in a niche/topic
- User asks "how many articles do I need to rank?"
- User wants to understand the content investment required
- User says "content moat", "topical authority", "feasibility", "content gap"
- After `keyword-cluster-architect` to estimate effort for the planned clusters
- Before committing to a major content initiative

## Input Schema

```yaml
niche: string                 # REQUIRED — the topic to analyze
                              # e.g., "AI video tools", "email marketing for SaaS"

hub_keyword: string           # OPTIONAL — main keyword to analyze competitors for
                              # Default: inferred from niche

your_current_pages: number    # OPTIONAL — how many pages you already have on this topic
                              # Default: 0

publishing_capacity: string   # OPTIONAL — "1/week" | "2/week" | "3/week" | "5/week"
                              # Default: "2/week"
```

**Chaining from S3 keyword-cluster-architect**: Use `keyword_clusters.total_clusters` and `keyword_clusters.hub.keyword`.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Analyze Top Competitors

Read `shared/references/seo-strategy.md` for moat calculation methodology.

1. `web_search` for `[hub_keyword]` or main niche keyword
2. Identify top 5 ranking sites (exclude giants like Wikipedia, Reddit)
3. For each competitor:
   - `web_search`: `site:[competitor.com] [niche topic]` — count pages on this topic
   - Note: content depth (word count), content freshness (publish dates), content types (blog, comparison, tutorial)

### Step 2: Calculate Moat

```
Average competitor pages = sum(competitor_pages) / number_of_competitors
Your moat target = Average × 1.5 (need MORE than average to break through)
Content gap = Moat target - your_current_pages
```

### Step 3: Feasibility Assessment

Based on moat target and publishing capacity:

```
Weeks to moat = Content gap / publishing_capacity_per_week
```

| Moat Target | Assessment | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| < 20 pages | GREEN — Achievable | Go for it. 2-3 months at 2/week. |
| 20-50 pages | YELLOW — Significant | Commit or don't. 3-6 months at 2/week. |
| 50-100 pages | ORANGE — Major investment | Consider narrowing niche. 6-12 months. |
| 100+ pages | RED — Very high barrier | Find a sub-niche or different angle. |

### Step 4: Competitive Advantage Analysis

Identify ways to build moat FASTER:
1. **Quality over quantity**: Can you beat thin content with fewer, deeper pages?
2. **Unique data**: Can you add proprietary data competitors don't have? (→ `proprietary-data-generator`)
3. **Format advantage**: Can you use formats competitors don't? (video, interactive, tools)
4. **Update velocity**: Can you refresh content faster than competitors?

### Step 5: Timeline and Roadmap

Create realistic timeline:
- Phase 1: Foundation content (hub + core spokes)
- Phase 2: Supporting content (additional spokes, long-tail)
- Phase 3: Authority content (original research, data, comprehensive guides)
- Phase 4: Maintenance (refresh, update, expand)

### Step 6: Self-Validation

- [ ] Competitor analysis uses real data (not estimates)
- [ ] Moat calculation is transparent and logical
- [ ] Feasibility assessment is honest (not overly optimistic)
- [ ] Competitive advantages are realistic
- [ ] Timeline accounts for quality, not just quantity

## Output Schema

```yaml
output_schema_version: "1.0.0"
content_moat:
  niche: string
  hub_keyword: string
  competitors_analyzed: number
  average_competitor_pages: number
  moat_target: number
  your_current_pages: number
  content_gap: number
  feasibility: string          # "green" | "yellow" | "orange" | "red"
  weeks_to_moat: number
  assessment: string           # Go/no-go summary

  competitors:
    - domain: string
      pages_on_topic: number
      content_quality: string  # "thin" | "average" | "deep"
      freshness: string        # "stale" | "recent" | "actively updated"

  authority_gaps: string[]     # What competitors have that you don't

  competitive_advantages: string[] # Ways to build moat faster

chain_metadata:
  skill_slug: "content-moat-calculator"
  stage: "blog"
  timestamp: string
  suggested_next:
    - "affiliate-blog-builder"
    - "keyword-cluster-architect"
    - "proprietary-data-generator"
    - "content-decay-detector"
```

## Output Format

```
## Content Moat Analysis: [Niche]

### Competitor Landscape

| Competitor | Pages on Topic | Quality | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|
| [domain] | XX | [thin/average/deep] | [stale/recent/active] |

### Moat Calculation
- **Average competitor pages:** XX
- **Your moat target (1.5x):** XX pages
- **Your current pages:** XX
- **Content gap:** XX pages
- **At [X]/week:** XX weeks to moat

### Feasibility: [GREEN/YELLOW/ORANGE/RED]

[Assessment paragraph — honest, actionable]

### Competitive Advantages
1. [How to build moat faster]
2. [What competitors are missing]

### Timeline
| Phase | Content | Pages | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foundation | Hub + core spokes | XX | X |
| Supporting | Long-tail, tutorials | XX | X |
| Authority | Original research, data | XX | X |
| **Total** | | **XX** | **X** |

### Recommendation
[Clear go/no-go with reasoning]
```

## Error Handling

- **Can't find competitors**: Broaden the search. If still no competitors → great sign (blue ocean), estimate moat at 15-20 pages.
- **Niche too broad**: "This niche has too many competitors to analyze meaningfully. Narrow down — run `monopoly-niche-finder` first."
- **User