digital-oracle

# digital-oracle

> Markets are efficient. Price contains all public information. Reading price = reading market consensus.

## Methodology

**Answer questions using only market trading data — no news, opinions, or statistical reports as causal evidence.** If something is true, some market has already priced it in.

Five iron rules:

1. **Trading data only** — prices, volume, open interest, spreads, premiums. Never cite analyst opinions.
2. **Explicit reasoning from price to judgment** — explain clearly "why this price answers this question."
3. **Multi-signal cross-validation** — never conclude from a single signal. At least 3 independent dimensions.
4. **Label the time horizon of each signal** — options price 3 months, equipment orders price 3 years — don't mix them in the same vote.
5. **Structured output** — the final report must follow the Step 5 template: layered signal tables → contradiction analysis → probability scenarios → signal consistency assessment. Do not substitute prose for structured reporting.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Understand the question

Decompose the user's question into:
- **Core variable**: What event or trend?
- **Time window**: Is the user asking about 3 months, 1 year, or 5 years?
- **Priceability**: Is there real money being traded on this outcome?

### Step 2: Select signals

Based on question type, select from the signal menu below. **Don't use just one category — cover at least 3.**

#### Geopolitical conflict / War risk
- Polymarket: Search for related event contracts (ceasefire, invasion, regime change, declaration of war)
- Kalshi: Search for related binary contracts
- Safe-haven assets: Gold (GC=F), silver (SI=F), Swiss franc (USDCHF=X)
- Conflict proxies: Crude oil (CL=F), natural gas (NG=F), wheat (ZW=F), defense ETF (ITA), defense stocks
- Risk ratios: Copper/Gold ratio (risk-off indicator), Gold/Silver ratio
- CFTC COT: Institutional positioning changes in crude/gold/wheat (which direction is smart money betting)
- BIS: Central bank policy rate trends in relevant countries
- FearGreedProvider: CNN Fear & Greed Index (composite of 7 price signals)
- Web search: VIX, MOVE index, sovereign CDS, war risk premiums, BDI freight rates, high-yield OAS
- Currencies: Currency pairs of relevant countries (e.g. USDRUB=X, USDCNY=X)
- Country ETFs: Asset flows in relevant countries (e.g. FXI, EWY)

#### Economic recession / Macro cycle
- Treasury: Yield curve shape (10Y-2Y spread, 10Y-3M spread), real rates, breakeven inflation
- YahooPriceProvider: SPY, copper (HG=F), crude oil (CL=F), price trends
- Risk ratios: Copper/Gold ratio
- CFTC COT: Speculative net positions in copper/crude (is managed money bullish or bearish)
- BIS: Credit-to-GDP gap (credit overheating = late cycle), policy rate directions
- World Bank: GDP growth rate historical trends, cross-country comparisons
- Deribit: BTC futures basis (risk appetite proxy)
- CoinGecko: Crypto total market cap + BTC dominance (risk appetite proxy)
- FearGreedProvider: CNN Fear & Greed Index (7 price signals composite → 0-100)
- Kalshi `KXFED` series: FOMC rate-decision contracts. (Use this for the rate path — CMEFedWatchProvider is currently 403-blocked by CME's bot protection from every host tested.)
- Polymarket: Recession-related contracts, central bank rate path
- Currencies: DXY/dollar strength, emerging market currencies
- Web search: High-yield bond spread (HY OAS), TED spread, MOVE index, TTF gas, BDI freight rates

#### Industry cycle / Bubble assessment
- YahooPriceProvider: Industry leader stock trends, sector ETFs
- Find the industry's "single-purpose commodity" (e.g. GPU rental price → AI, rebar → construction)
- Upstream equipment maker orders/stock price (e.g. ASML → semiconductors)
- Leader company valuation discount (e.g. TSMC vs peers → Taiwan Strait risk pricing)
- EDGAR: Industry leader insider trading cadence (Form 4) — concentrated selling = bearish signal
- CFTC COT: Institutional positioning changes in related commodities
- CoinGecko: For crypto industry, look at BTC/ETH/altcoin market cap distribution
- Web search: VC funding concentration, leveraged ETF concentration, margin debt levels
- Deribit: Implied volatility of related crypto assets

#### Asset pricing / Whether to buy
- YahooPriceProvider: Target asset price trend (daily/weekly/monthly)
- Relative price changes of correlated assets (divergence between two commodities = structural signal)
- Treasury: Risk-free rate as valuation anchor
- YFinance: Options chain (IV, put/call ratio, max pain, Greeks, implied move)
- EDGAR: Insider selling cadence (heavy Form 4 selling = insiders bearish)
- CFTC COT: Speculative vs commercial net position divergence for commodity assets
- CoinGecko: For crypto assets, check market cap, ATH/ATL distance, 24h volatility
- Deribit: Crypto options chain (implied volatility = market's expected range)
- Polymarket/Kalshi: Probability pricing of related events
- FearGreedProvider: CNN Fear & Greed composite score (momentum, breadth, VIX, put/call, junk bond demand, volatility, safe haven)
- Web search: VIX, corporate bond issuance volume, analyst rating distribution

#### Stock/Options analysis / Crash probability
- YFinance: Options chain → ATM IV (expected volatility), IV skew (upside/downside fear asymmetry), put/call ratio (bull/bear sentiment), max pain (market maker profit zone), implied move (expected price range), Greeks (delta ≈ ITM probability)
- YahooPriceProvider: Underlying historical price → realized volatility (compare vs implied volatility to judge options premium)
- Kalshi: SPY/NASDAQ price range markets → direct probability pricing
- CFTC COT: S&P 500/VIX futures positioning → institutional direction
- Defensive rotation: XLY (cyclical) vs XLP (defensive) vs XLU (utilities) relative performance → market defensiveness
- Treasury: Yield curve shape → recession signal
- FearGreedProvider: CNN Fear & Greed Index
- Web search: VIX level, margin debt level, leveraged ETF concentration