10-tinh-kpi-nguoc
This Claude Code skill calculates marketing budgets and revenue projections using reverse and forward KPI modeling for Vietnamese businesses. It gathers four key inputs (revenue targets, product pricing, industry/channel data, campaign duration), then applies conversion funnels and cost-per-message benchmarks to either estimate ad spend needed for revenue goals or forecast revenue from available budget. Use it when planning digital marketing campaigns across channels like Meta, TikTok, and Google, especially for service businesses and e-commerce in Vietnam requiring sensitivity analysis and channel allocation strategies.
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/minhnv0807/ai-business-skills /tmp/10-tinh-kpi-nguoc && cp -r /tmp/10-tinh-kpi-nguoc/skills/vi/10-tinh-kpi-nguoc ~/.claude/skills/10-tinh-kpi-nguocSKILL.md
# Tinh KPI Nguoc ## Thu thap thong tin Hoi user toi da 4 cau sau truoc khi bat dau: 1. **Muc tieu la gi?** (Doanh thu X trieu/thang? Hay ngan sach co san X trieu va muon biet duoc bao nhieu don?) 2. **San pham / dich vu va gia ban?** (Gia trung binh 1 don hang — AOV) 3. **Nganh hang va kenh hien tai?** (Nganh gi? Dang chay kenh nao? Co du lieu CPMess/CPL hien tai khong?) 4. **Thoi gian chien dich?** (1 thang? 3 thang? 6 thang? Co pha theo giai doan khong?) --- ## 2 huong tinh ### Huong 1 — Tinh nguoc (Reverse): Tu doanh thu → Ngan sach Dung khi: "Toi muon dat 200 trieu/thang — can bao nhieu tien ads?" ``` Doanh thu muc tieu / AOV (gia tri don trung binh) = SO DON CAN / Ti le Booking→Customer = SO BOOKING CAN / Ti le Lead→Booking = SO LEAD CAN / Ti le Mess→Lead = SO TIN NHAN CAN x CPMess = NGAN SACH ADS CAN ``` ### Huong 2 — Tinh xuoi (Forward): Tu ngan sach → Doanh thu Dung khi: "Toi co 50 trieu — chay duoc bao nhieu don?" ``` Ngan sach / CPMess = SO TIN NHAN DU KIEN x Ti le Mess→Lead = SO LEAD DU KIEN x Ti le Lead→Booking = SO BOOKING DU KIEN x Ti le Booking→Customer = SO DON DU KIEN x AOV = DOANH THU DU KIEN ``` --- ## Benchmark Vietnam 2025–2026 ### Ti le chuyen doi theo nganh | Buoc | Trung binh chung | Beauty & Spa | F&B | Education | E-commerce | BDS | |------|-----------------|-------------|-----|-----------|-----------|-----| | Mess→Lead | 50–60% | 55–65% | 45–55% | 40–50% | N/A | 35–45% | | Lead→Booking | 50–60% | 55–65% | 40–55% | N/A | N/A | 10–20% | | Booking→Customer | 30–40% | 40–55% | N/A | 5–15% | 1–3% | 5–15% | | Customer→Re-purchase (90d) | 15–25% | 20–35% | 25–40% | N/A | 10–20% | N/A | ### CPMess / CPL theo kenh | Kenh | CPMess Kem | CPMess TB | CPMess Tot | CPMess Xuat sac | |------|-----------|----------|-----------|----------------| | Meta (Facebook + IG) | >40K | 25–40K | 18–25K | <18K | | TikTok | >45K | 28–45K | 20–28K | <20K | | Google (CPL) | >200K | 85–150K | 50–85K | <50K | | Zalo (CPMess broadcast) | N/A | ~500d/mess | ~300d/mess | <200d/mess | ### Luu y mua vu | Thoi diem | Anh huong CPM | |-----------|-------------| | Tet Nguyen Dan (T1–T2) | +30–50% | | Black Friday / 11.11 / 12.12 | +20–30% | | He (T6–T8) | +10–15% | | Thang binh thuong | Baseline | --- ## Bang tinh 3 kich ban ### Cau truc 3 kich ban | Chi so | Pessimistic (Xau) | Base (Co so) | Optimistic (Tot) | |--------|-------------------|-------------|------------------| | CPMess | TB nganh + 30% | TB nganh | TB nganh - 20% | | Mess→Lead | TB nganh - 15% | TB nganh | TB nganh + 15% | | Lead→Booking | TB nganh - 10% | TB nganh | TB nganh + 10% | | Booking→Customer | TB nganh - 10% | TB nganh | TB nganh + 10% | ### Template bang tinh (vi du: Spa, AOV 500K, muc tieu 200 trieu/thang) | Buoc | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |------|-------------|------|-----------| | Doanh thu muc tieu | 200,000,000 | 200,000,000 | 200,000,000 | | AOV | 500,000 | 500,000 | 500,000 | | **So don can** | **400** | **400** | **400** | | Booking→Customer | 36% | 45% | 55% | | **So booking can** | **1,111** | **889** | **727** | | Lead→Booking | 47% | 60% | 69% | | **So lead can** | **2,364** | **1,481** | **1,054** | | Mess→Lead | 47% | 60% | 69% | | **So tin nhan can** | **5,030** | **2,469** | **1,527** | | CPMess | 39,000 | 30,000 | 24,000 | | **Ngan sach ads** | **196,170,000** | **74,070,000** | **36,648,000** | | **ROAS du kien** | **1.02x** | **2.70x** | **5.46x** | ### Doc ket qua - Pessimistic: Can ~196 trieu ads cho 200 trieu doanh thu — ROAS <1, lo - Base: Can ~74 trieu ads — ROAS 2.7x, chap nhan duoc - Optimistic: Can ~37 trieu ads — ROAS 5.5x, rat tot **Dung so Base de lap ke hoach. Dung so Pessimistic de du phong. Dung so Optimistic de dat muc tieu toi uu.** --- ## Sensitivity Analysis (Phan tich do nhay) Bien nao anh huong nhieu nhat? Tang/giam 10% moi bien va xem ngan sach thay doi bao nhieu: ### Template | Bien | Gia tri Base | Thay doi +10% | Ngan sach moi | Thay doi ngan sach | |------|-------------|--------------|--------------|-------------------| | CPMess | 30K | 33K | +10% | **Truc tiep 1:1** | | Mess→Lead | 60% | 66% | -9% | **Anh huong lon** | | Lead→Booking | 60% | 66% | -9% | **Anh huong lon** | | Booking→Customer | 45% | 49.5% | -9% | **Anh huong lon** | | AOV | 500K | 550K | -9% (it don hon) | Gian tiep | ### Nhan dinh **Quy tac 80/20:** Thuong 2 bien anh huong nhieu nhat la: 1. **CPMess** — phu thuoc creative + targeting → toi uu bang A/B test ads 2. **Mess→Lead** — phu thuoc chat luong tu van → toi uu bang script chot + toc do reply **Bien de cai thien nhat:** [Xep hang tu de den kho] | Bien | Muc do cai thien | Cach cai thien | |------|------------------|---------------| | CPMess | De — test creative | A/B test 3–5 creative/tuan, doi hook, doi format | | Mess→Lead | De — cai script | Training team, script chuan, reply <5 phut | | Lead→Booking | Trung binh — cai quy trinh | Follow-up 3 lan, noi dung nurture, uu dai | | Booking→Customer | Kho — cai trai nghiem | Chat luong dich vu, first impression, upsell | --- ## Break-even (Diem hoa von) ### Cong thuc ``` Break-even don = Chi phi co dinh / (AOV - Chi phi bien doi moi don) Break-even ngay = Break-even don / So don trung binh moi ngay ``` ### Template break-even | Hang muc | Gia tri | |---------|---------| | **Chi phi co dinh/thang** | | | — Ngan sach ads | [X] | | — Content production | [X] | | — Nhan su MKT | [X] | | — Tool (CRM, email, design) | [X] | | — UGC/KOL | [X] | | **Tong chi phi co dinh** | **[X]** | | **AOV** | [X] | | **Chi phi bien doi/don** | [X] (van chuyen, hoa hong, COGS) | | **Loi nhuan/don** | AOV - Chi phi bien doi = [X] | | **Break-even don** | Tong CF co dinh / Loi nhuan moi don = **[X don]** | | **Break-even ngay** | Break-even don / 30 = **[X ngay]** | ### Danh gia | Ket qua | Y nghia | Hanh dong | |---------|---------|----------| | Break-even < 50% so don du kien | An toan — du bien do loi nhuan | Co the scale ngan sach | | Break-
Ke hoach Fullstack Marketing — master skill tong hop chien luoc, noi dung, trien khai, hieu suat, va timeline. Goi cac skill con de hoan thien output.
Use when the user needs an overall marketing plan for a period — objectives, segments, positioning, channel mix, content direction, budget, timeline, KPIs, and a risk matrix, adapted to US, EU, SEA, or LATAM. Trigger on 'marketing plan', 'marketing strategy for next year', 'go-to-market roadmap', 'plan for Q3', 'we have no marketing plan', 'where should we spend next quarter'. Also use when a founder only says the business needs to grow and has no idea which channel to start with. Not for — one specific campaign, see `02-campaign-brief-global`; working backward from a revenue goal to spend, see `10-reverse-kpi-global`; splitting a budget across channels and months, see `61-budget-planning-global`; taking a brand new product to market, see `59-go-to-market-global`.
Use when the user needs a monthly or weekly content calendar — posting schedule per channel, funnel ratio, content pillars, repurposing matrix, and an owner per slot. Trigger on 'content calendar', 'posting schedule', 'what should we post this month', 'editorial calendar', 'social media plan', 'we post randomly with no plan'. Also use when the user only says the team keeps running out of things to post. Not for — the brief for one specific post, see `36-content-brief-global`; the caption text itself, see `37-social-caption-global`; deciding next period content from last period data, see `40-next-content-plan-global`; a paid campaign timeline, see `02-campaign-brief-global`.
Lich noi dung thang — len lich dang bai da kenh voi ti le pheu, content pillar, repurposing matrix, va scoring tieu chi.
Brief chien dich marketing — 9 phan day du tu Context den Risk, bao gom creative direction, RACI, budget allocation theo phase, va auto-trigger cac skill lien quan.
Use when a specific campaign needs a brief the whole team can execute from — context, objective, audience, core message, creative direction, channels, deliverables, week-by-week timeline, approval gates, and risks. Trigger on 'campaign brief', 'creative brief', 'launch brief', 'brief the team on this campaign', 'we are running a promo next month', 'what is the plan for this campaign'. Also use when the user describes a promotion out loud and asks for something the team can actually run. Not for — the whole period plan, see `00-marketing-plan-global`; the list of design files needed, see `41-campaign-asset-list-global`; assigning work to one person, see `64-team-brief-global`; a new product launch sequence, see `59-go-to-market-global`.
Danh gia hieu suat marketing — audit performance ads va organic, chan doan root cause, de xuat toi uu voi action plan 48h va checklist hang tuan.
Use when marketing numbers look bad and the user needs to know WHY — layered root-cause diagnosis across tracking, delivery, creative, landing page, offer, and audience quality, 5-Whys, regional benchmarks for US, EU, SEA, and LATAM, and a 48-hour action plan. Covers dropshipping ROAS and BE-ROAS. Trigger on 'why is CPA so high', 'my ads are not converting', 'ROAS dropped', 'we are burning budget', 'performance is bad this month', 'diagnose the funnel'. Also use when the user pastes a screenshot of numbers with no question attached. Not for — auditing account configuration and scoring health, see `21-ads-audit-global`; writing a report someone else reads, see `07-marketing-report-global`; turning a raw export into insight, see `13-data-analysis-global`.