Deal Flow

<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output via leverage scoring, valuation context, and banned-phrase quality gates -->

Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context (tracked verticals, active theses).
Read the last 14 days of `memory/logs/` and extract company names from prior `### deal-flow` entries to build the dedup set.

## Goal

Produce a weekly funding-round digest that tells the reader **what the capital reveals**, not just what closed. A flat list of rounds is noise; a ranked, contextualized read is signal.

## Steps

### 1. Gather candidates from tiered sources

Run searches in parallel. Use the **current month + year** in queries. Aim for ≥25 candidate deals before filtering. If a source fails, record `source=fail` for the footer; do not abort.

**Source fetch rule (applies to every WebFetch below):** if the fetch returns 404, 403, is rate-limited, or times out, log `DEAL_FLOW_SOURCE_MISS: <url> (<reason>)` and continue with remaining sources. Never abort the run on a single source miss — the tiered design is specifically so that any one source can fail.

**Tier 1 — broad aggregators (always run):**
- WebSearch: `"biggest funding rounds" week ${month} ${year} site:news.crunchbase.com`
- WebSearch: `funding round ${month} ${year} site:techcrunch.com`
- WebSearch: `"Series A" OR "Series B" OR "seed" raised ${month} ${year} startup`
- WebFetch `https://news.crunchbase.com/sections/venture/` — extract this week's roundup if present (apply source-miss rule above)

**Tier 2 — vertical-specific (run for verticals in MEMORY.md; defaults: AI, crypto, infra/devtools):**
- AI: WebFetch `https://aifundingtracker.com/`; WebSearch `"AI startup" "raised" Series ${month} ${year}`
- Crypto: WebFetch `https://crypto-fundraising.info/` and `https://cryptorank.io/funding-rounds` (apply source-miss rule); WebSearch `crypto funding round ${month} ${year}`
- Infra/devtools: WebSearch `developer tools OR infrastructure OR compute startup raised ${month} ${year}`

**Tier 3 — signal flags (always include if found, regardless of size):**
- Prediction markets, coordination markets, agentic payments, x402, autonomous-agent infra, on-chain identity
- WebSearch: `prediction market OR agentic payment OR x402 funding ${month} ${year}`

**X/Twitter fallback signal path (always run, especially when Tier 1/2 sources miss):**
- Use `fetch-tweets` outputs or direct X search for the following queries — these surface deals that aggregators miss or haven't indexed yet:
  - `funding-announcement` (literal hashtag and phrase)
  - `"announcing our Series" OR "we raised" ${month} ${year}`
  - `"led by @<tier1_fund>" raised` (substitute a16z, paradigm, sequoia, etc.)
  - `"thrilled to announce" funding ${month} ${year}`
- Treat tweets from verified founder/investor accounts as primary-source candidates; still dedup by company name and verify amount/lead from a second source before including.

### 2. Dedup and enrich

- Drop any deal whose company name (case-insensitive) appears in the last-14-days dedup set, **unless** the new round is materially different (later stage, >2× larger, or new lead).
- For each surviving candidate, capture:
  - **Company** + ≤12-word description
  - **Round** (pre-seed / seed / A / B / C / strategic)
  - **Amount** in USD
  - **Valuation** (post-money) if disclosed
  - **Prior valuation** if known → flag **UP / FLAT / DOWN** vs prior round
  - **Lead investor(s)** + notable co-leads
  - **Source URL**

If valuation or prior is unknown, write `n/d`. **Never hallucinate numbers.**

### 3. Score for leverage (1–5 each)

| Dimension | 5 (high) | 3 (mid) | 1 (low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Magnitude** | Round size unusual for stage (Series A >$50M; seed >$15M) | Standard for stage | Below median |
| **Investor signal** | Lead is a16z, Paradigm, Founders Fund, Sequoia, Benchmark, Pantera, USV, Lightspeed | Reputable but not top-tier | Unknown / pure syndicate |
| **Thesis fit** | Validates a tracked vertical/thesis directly | Adjacent | Off-thesis |
| **Narrative weight** | First-of-kind, contrarian, or category-defining | Confirmation of existing trend | Me-too |
| **Valuation signal** | UP >2× prior, OR DOWN (down rounds are signal) | FLAT or UP <2× | n/d |

Sum the five. Keep the **top 8** deals by total. Ties broken by recency.

### 4. Quality gates (drop if any fail)

- Acqui-hire, grant <$1M, or token sale → drop (token-pick covers tokens)
- Round older than 14 days → drop
- Amount or lead unverifiable → drop (no rumors)
- Total leverage score <12 → drop **unless** it carries a Tier-3 signal flag
- Cannot write a non-vague "Why it matters" line (see banned phrases below) → drop

### 5. Write the digest

```
*Deal Flow — ${today}*

**Read:** [1 sentence: what this week's capital signals — where smart money clustered, what's overfunded/underfunded, which thesis got validated or broken]

1. **Company** — what they do (≤12 words)
   $XXM ${round} @ $YYM post (${UP|FLAT|DOWN|n/d} vs prior) | Lead: ${investor}
   *Why it matters:* [≤20 words; must name the specific signal]

2. ...

*Sources:* crunchbase=ok|fail, techcrunch=ok|fail, cryptorank=ok|fail, aift=ok|fail | candidates=${N} → kept=${K}
```

**Hard rules for "Why it matters":**
- Banned phrases (drop the deal if you can't avoid them): *"interesting", "growing", "exciting", "potential", "could be", "watch this space", "important space", "validates the trend"*
- Must reference at least one of: a named thesis, a competitive dynamic, a valuation anomaly, an investor-pattern shift, a regulatory/macro trigger, or a first-of-kind structural detail.

Cap total at 4000 chars. If everything gets dropped, send:
`*Deal Flow — ${today}* — No deals cleared signal threshold this week. Sources: ...`

### 6. Log to `memory/logs/${today}.md`

```
### deal-flow
- Candidates: ${N} → Kept: ${K}
- Top deal: ${company} ($${amount} ${round}, lead ${investor}) — score ${score}/25
- Themes: [1–2 sentence cluster summary]
- Source health: [any source=fail with reason]
- Ded