know-if-its-working

# Know if it's working

> The only early metric that matters is **net developer retention**. Without it, you're not running a funnel; you're running a colander.

**Use this when:** you're tracking GitHub stars and pageviews and still can't answer "is GTM working?", or you're pouring effort into acquisition while new users quietly churn.

## The core idea

Acquisition is worthless if users don't come back. Prove **retention** first; only then does spending on **acquisition** make sense. Most early founders optimize the top of the funnel while the bottom leaks. Fix that order.

## Framework: net developer retention (Frankl)

> Of all the developers who first used the product in **Month 1**, how many used it in **Month 2? Month 3?**

- Hold it **above 100%** (meaning existing cohorts *grow* through internal referral/expansion).
- Below solid retention, **do not focus on acquisition**: you're filling a leaky bucket.
- This single cohort question tells you more than every vanity chart combined.

## Framework: the DREAM metrics (Frankl)

Measure one honest number per stage, not pageviews, not stars.

| Stage | The metric that counts |
|---|---|
| **Discovery** | unique human visitors / month |
| **Research** | newsletter subs + community joins + follows |
| **Evaluation** | free-tier signups / downloads / active free users |
| **Activation** | monthly active users · frequency · session depth |
| **Membership** | community members *actively* posting & answering |

**The gate before all of it, the weekend test:** can a new developer get to first value **over a weekend from docs + Stack Overflow, no support call?** Time-to-value target: **< 1 hour ideal, 1 day max.** If Evaluation/Activation fails here, no channel work will save you.

## Growth benchmarks (non-ARR, Frankl)

- **Pre-seed:** ~30% month-over-month user growth
- **Post-Series-A:** ~10% MoM
- **First $1M ARR:** within 12 months is good, 9 is excellent

## Framework: attribution philosophy (Czakon)

Developer marketing is **hard to attribute and that's normal.** A dev sees your HN post, reads a tutorial, lurks for two months, then signs up direct.
- Don't over-trust last-touch; it will tell you "direct/organic" and hide the real work.
- Add a **"how did you hear about us?"** free-text field. Self-reported attribution beats a broken model.
- Judge channels on *trend* and *directional* signal, not spurious precision.

## Decision tree: what to fix first

```
Is month-2 cohort retention healthy (users come back)?
├─ NO  → STOP optimizing acquisition. Fix Evaluation/Activation (the weekend test, time-to-value).
└─ YES → is a channel reliably producing retained users?
         ├─ YES → pour more in (and only now consider paid to amplify).
         └─ NO  → go back to first-50-users; find the channel before scaling spend.
```

## Mistakes that look reasonable

- **Vanity metrics**: stars, pageviews, impressions. They feel like progress and predict nothing.
- **Acquisition over a leaky bucket**: buying users who never return.
- **Demanding clean attribution**: chasing a perfect model instead of acting on directional signal.
- **Ignoring the weekend test**: a beautiful funnel that dies at first-value.

## Your next 30 minutes

- [ ] Compute one number: of the devs who first used it 8 weeks ago, what % used it in the last 2 weeks?
- [ ] Pick **one** honest metric per DREAM stage; delete the vanity charts from your dashboard.
- [ ] Time yourself doing your own onboarding cold. Over an hour? That's your #1 GTM problem.
- [ ] Add a "how did you hear about us?" field to signup this week.

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Built from real dev-tool GTM experience, with frameworks from Adam Frankl (*The Developer-Facing Startup*) and Jakub Czakon (*markepear.dev*).
When a framework can't make the call, that's what a human is for: [The DevTool GTM Company](https://thedevtoolgtmcompany.com).