startup-validator

# Startup Validator

A comprehensive tool for analyzing startup ideas through systematic market research, competitive analysis, problem validation, and positioning strategy. This skill helps evaluate whether a startup idea has genuine market potential and how to position it effectively.

## Core Workflow

When a user presents a startup idea, follow this systematic validation process:

### 1. Idea Clarification & Scoping (2-3 minutes)

Ensure complete understanding before research begins:

**Extract key information:**
- Problem being solved
- Target customer/market
- Proposed solution
- Business model (if mentioned)
- Geographic focus (default: global/US)

**Ask clarifying questions only if critical information is missing:**
- "Who specifically is your target customer?"
- "What problem are they currently facing?"
- "How are they solving this problem today?"

**Do not ask** for information you can research independently (market size, competitors, trends).

### 2. Research Plan Development (1 minute)

Based on the idea, create a research plan identifying:
- Market size queries needed
- Competitor research keywords
- Problem validation searches
- Trend analysis topics
- Pricing/business model research

Use templates from `references/research_templates.md` for query formulation.

### 3. Comprehensive Market Research (10-15 tool calls minimum)

Execute systematic research across all dimensions. **Always use at least 10-15 web searches** to ensure thorough analysis.

#### A. Market Opportunity (3-5 searches)
Search for:
- Market size and projections
- Growth rates and trends
- TAM/SAM calculations
- Industry reports and forecasts

**Query examples:**
- "[industry] market size 2025"
- "global [product category] market forecast"
- "[industry] growth rate CAGR"

#### B. Competitive Landscape (3-5 searches)
Search for:
- Direct competitors
- Alternative solutions
- Market leaders
- Recent funding/acquisitions

**Query examples:**
- "[solution type] companies"
- "[product category] alternatives"
- "best [product type] 2025"
- "[industry] startups funding"

#### C. Problem Validation (2-3 searches)
Search for:
- Evidence of the problem
- Current pain points
- Customer behavior patterns
- Existing budget allocation

**Query examples:**
- "[target customer] challenges [industry]"
- "why [target customer] need [solution]"
- "[problem] statistics"

#### D. Market Trends (2-3 searches)
Search for:
- Technology trends
- Regulatory changes
- Consumer behavior shifts
- Investment patterns

**Query examples:**
- "[industry] trends 2025"
- "future of [technology/market]"
- "[industry] investment report"

#### E. Business Model Research (1-2 searches)
Search for:
- Pricing models in the space
- Unit economics benchmarks
- Customer acquisition strategies

**Query examples:**
- "[product] pricing models"
- "[industry] average customer acquisition cost"

**CRITICAL:** Use `web_fetch` to read full articles from authoritative sources (Gartner, McKinsey, Statista, Crunchbase, industry reports) to get detailed data, not just snippets.

### 4. Data Analysis & Synthesis

After gathering data, analyze using frameworks from `references/frameworks.md`:

#### Market Opportunity Assessment
- Calculate/estimate TAM, SAM, SOM
- Evaluate growth trajectory
- Identify market trends (favorable/unfavorable)
- Assess market maturity stage

#### Competitive Positioning
- Map competitive landscape (direct/indirect/adjacent)
- Identify market gaps
- Evaluate barriers to entry
- Assess competitive advantages needed

#### Problem-Solution Fit
- Validate problem frequency and intensity
- Assess willingness to pay
- Evaluate current solutions and their limitations
- Identify unique value proposition opportunities

#### Business Model Viability
- Estimate unit economics potential
- Assess scalability
- Evaluate pricing power
- Consider customer acquisition channels

**Optional:** If quantitative data is available, create a JSON file and use `scripts/market_analyzer.py` to calculate metrics and generate additional insights.

### 5. Risk & Opportunity Identification

Clearly articulate:
- **Critical Risks:** Deal-breakers or major challenges
- **Manageable Risks:** Solvable with strategy/execution
- **Key Opportunities:** Market gaps, timing advantages, trends
- **Assumptions to Validate:** Hypotheses needing testing

### 6. Positioning Strategy

Develop specific recommendations:
- **Target Market Segmentation:** Primary beachhead market
- **Value Proposition:** Core benefit statement
- **Differentiation Strategy:** How to stand out
- **Go-to-Market Approach:** Distribution and acquisition strategy
- **Positioning Statement:** Concise market positioning

### 7. Report Generation

Create a comprehensive markdown report with:

```markdown
# [Startup Idea] Validation Report

## Executive Summary
- One-paragraph overview
- Bottom-line recommendation: STRONG GO / PROCEED WITH VALIDATION / PIVOT RECOMMENDED / NOT VIABLE
- 3-5 key findings

## Market Analysis
### Market Size & Growth
- TAM/SAM/SOM estimates with sources
- Growth rate and trajectory
- Market maturity assessment

### Market Trends
- Key favorable trends
- Potential headwinds
- Timing considerations

## Competitive Landscape
### Direct Competitors
- List with brief descriptions
- Market share/position
- Strengths and weaknesses

### Indirect Competition
- Alternative solutions
- Substitutes

### Competitive Gaps
- Unmet needs
- Positioning opportunities

## Problem-Solution Fit
### Problem Validation
- Evidence of problem
- Frequency and intensity
- Current solutions and limitations

### Solution Differentiation
- Unique value proposition
- Competitive advantages
- Potential moats

## Business Model Assessment
### Revenue Model
- Pricing strategy alignment
- Unit economics potential
- Scalability factors

### Customer Acquisition
- Primary channels
- CAC considerations
- Sales cycle estimates

## Risk Analysis
### Critical Risks
- Deal-breakers
- Major challenges

### Manageable Risks