convert-temperature

# Convert Temperature - Market Temperature Read

> *"Before you write a word of copy, you need to know where your reader is. Not demographically - psychologically. How much do they already know? How much do they already believe? How much have they already heard?"* - The Donahoe Method, Framework 7

The same product needs completely different copy at every temperature. An Ice Cold audience needs a 3,000-word education piece. A Boiling audience needs a 3-line email. Writing hot copy for a cold audience is the most common reason campaigns fail.

This skill classifies your reader on the 5-level temperature scale and outputs a calibration brief that every downstream Method skill uses.

## When to Use

Trigger phrases: "what temperature is this audience", "market temperature", "awareness level", "is this audience hot or cold", "ice cold cool warm hot boiling", "calibrate the copy length", "temperature read", "how aware is this reader", `/convert temperature <audience description>`.

Run this skill in the diagnostic phase, alongside `convert-four-questions`. Both feed the brief that the page-builders work from.

Do NOT use for:
- Auditing an existing live page's tone or fit (use `convert-audit`)
- Picking an offer (offers are temperature-agnostic - see `funnels-offer`)
- Writing actual copy (this is a calibration; the writers come next)

## Inputs

Required:
1. **Traffic source** - where is this reader coming from? Cold ad, retargeting pixel, email list, repeat customer, abandoned cart, organic search, podcast guest spot, friend referral. Source determines temperature more than any other variable.
2. **What the reader already believes** - three short statements: do they believe they have a problem? do they believe a solution exists? do they believe *you* can deliver it?
3. **What the reader has already seen** - have they consumed the seller's content before? Have they seen competitor pitches? How sophisticated is the market they live in?

Optional:
- **Asset type** being calibrated (sales page / VSL / email / ad / squeeze page)
- **Sample of past copy that worked / flopped** for this audience
- `out_path` - caller-controlled output. Defaults via `build_report_path`.

## The Five Temperature Levels (full method)

### Ice Cold - They Don't Know They Have a Problem

**State:** Not looking for a solution because they don't know there's a problem worth solving.
**Job of copy:** Wake them up. Don't sell - pattern-interrupt. Show them something they haven't considered.
**Enemy:** Apathy, not skepticism.
**Length signal:** Long. 2,500-4,000 words on a sales page. 25+ minute VSL with extended education. Bridge pages and advertorials carry the weight before any pitch lands.
**Open posture:** Layer 1 Nerve Strike must surface a *latent* pain. Layer 2 Side Door is critical - pitchy openers get scrolled past on the first sentence.
**Three Locks weight:** Heavy on **Want** (you're building it from zero), light on Excuse (no one is at the buy line yet).
**Proof posture:** Anecdote-heavy and Receipt-heavy. They need to see other people's problem-discovery moments before they accept their own.
**Close posture:** Soft CTA - usually to consume more content, not to buy. "Watch the next video" / "Read this" / "Get the free thing." The buy comes later in the sequence.

Examples of Ice Cold traffic:
- Cold Facebook / TikTok / YouTube ad audiences targeted by demographic only
- New blog readers via SEO long-tail
- Podcast audiences hearing the seller's name for the first time

### Cool - They Know the Problem, Not the Solution

**State:** Frustrated but don't know what to do about it. Searching, comparing, lurking.
**Job of copy:** Name the problem so precisely they feel understood, then introduce the *category* of solution. Don't pitch your specific product yet - sell the approach.
**Enemy:** Confusion and search fatigue.
**Length signal:** Long-medium. 1,800-2,800 words. 18-minute VSL.
**Open posture:** Layer 1 Nerve Strike hits the problem they've already named in their own head. Skin in the Game lands hard - they want someone who's been in their seat.
**Three Locks weight:** Balanced. **Want** is partially built (they want *out*); **Trust** carries the most weight because they're shopping for someone they can believe.
**Proof posture:** Anecdote + Because. They need the *mechanism* explained, not just results.
**Close posture:** Direct but with full Cascade. The Vision Close + Math Close together close most of this segment.

Examples of Cool traffic:
- Search-intent traffic on long-tail problem queries ("why are my Facebook ads not converting")
- Lead-magnet opt-ins from problem-aware content
- Audiences from podcast guest spots where the problem was named

### Warm - They Know Solutions Exist, Haven't Picked One

**State:** Shopping. Comparing. They've tried at least one thing that didn't work.
**Job of copy:** Differentiate. Why This and not the other options? Your unique mechanism does the heavy lifting here.
**Enemy:** Past disappointment and decision paralysis.
**Length signal:** Medium. 1,200-2,000 words. 12-15 minute VSL.
**Open posture:** Layer 1 Nerve Strike often takes the form of *"You've tried X. Here's why X didn't work."* Fingerprint must be sharp - you're being compared.
**Three Locks weight:** Heavy on **Trust** (they're skeptical from past failures) and on the differentiation in **Want** (your version of the result is better/faster/different).
**Proof posture:** Receipts + Drive-By + the Because mechanism. Show, name the credential in passing, explain why it works.
**Close posture:** Full Cascade. Safety Net carries unusually heavy weight - they've been burned and the guarantee removes the last objection.

Examples of Warm traffic:
- Retargeting pixel from a Cool-temp page
- Email list of past lead-magnet downloaders
- Audiences who've consumed 2-3 pieces of seller content
- Affiliate traffic from a complementary seller

### Hot - They Know About You, Haven't Decided

**State:** On the fence abou