china-earnings-analysis

# china-earnings-analysis

## Purpose

Create professional **A股季度/年度业绩点评报告**, analyzing results for companies already under coverage. Follow Chinese sell-side research standards (中金、中信、华泰 format).

## Data Sources

### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

```python
get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly")   → 利润表 (季度)
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")      → 利润表 (年度)
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly")  → 资产负债表
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → 现金流量表
get_quote(ticker)                               → 实时行情, PE/PB
get_historical_data(ticker)                     → 股价表现
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}")          → 相关新闻
```

### Secondary Sources

- **巨潮资讯** (cninfo.com.cn) — 正式财报 PDF (mandatory)
- **上证e互动 / 深交所互动易** — 投资者关系 Q&A
- **公司官网** — 业绩说明会 (earnings call) 材料
- **慧博投研 / 同花顺 iFinD** — 一致预期数据
- **Wind / Choice** — institutional consensus (if available)

## Key Financial Terms (Chinese → English)

| Chinese | English | Notes |
|---------|---------|-------|
| 营业收入 | Revenue | Top-line, net of VAT |
| 营业成本 | COGS | Cost of goods sold |
| 毛利率 | Gross margin | 营业利润/营业收入 |
| 营业利润 | Operating profit | 核心经营利润 |
| 归母净利润 | Net income attributable to parent | Key metric for A-share coverage |
| 扣非净利润 | Net income (non-GAAP adj.) | Deducts one-time items |
| 净利润 | Net income | May include minority interest |
| 经营活动现金流 | Operating CF | 经营现金流 |
| 资本支出 | CapEx | 购建固定资产 |
| 有息负债 | Interest-bearing debt | 有息负债 |
| 每股收益 (EPS) | Earnings per share | 基本EPS / 稀释EPS |

## Workflow

### Step 1: Pull the Earnings Print

**Data to collect:**
- Current quarter / full year income statement (from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare)
- Balance sheet and cash flow statement
- Management commentary / 业绩说明会 transcript
- Company press release (投资者关系活动记录表)

**Verify against:**
- Previous quarter guidance (管理层指引)
- Consensus estimates (一致预期) if available

### Step 2: Build the Variance Table

**Required columns:**

| Item | 实际 (Actual) | 一致预期 (Consensus) | 上次预测 (Prior) | 同比 (YoY) | 环比 (QoQ) | Surprise |
|------|---------------|---------------------|------------------|------------|------------|----------|
| 营业收入 | | | | | | |
| 毛利率 | | | | | | |
| 归母净利润 | | | | | | |
| EPS (基本) | | | | | | |
| 经营现金流 | | | | | | |

**Surprise calculation:**
- Beat/Miss % = (Actual - Consensus) / |Consensus| × 100%
- Flag:
  - **大幅超预期**: >+10%
  - **符合预期**: -10% to +10%
  - **低于预期**: <-10%

**Consensus sources (in priority order):**
1. Wind / Choice 一致预期
2. 慧博投研 盈利预测
3. 同花顺 iFinD 盈利预测
4. 分析师预测调研 (from 巨潮 业绩预告)
5. If unavailable, note `[UNSOURCED]`

### Step 3: Analyze Key Drivers

**Revenue:**
- Volume vs price decomposition
- Segment revenue breakdown (if disclosed)
- New product / customer contribution
- Industry volume trends

**Margins:**
- 毛利率变化: input cost (原材料), pricing power, product mix
- 费用率变化: 费用率 = 费用 / 营业收入
- 营业利润率 trends

**Balance Sheet:**
- 应收账款增速 vs 收入增速
- 存货积压 risk
- 有息负债 changes
- 商誉 level (flag impairment risk)

**Cash Flow:**
- 经营现金流 vs 净利润 (quality of earnings)
- 资本支出 intensity
- Free cash flow = 经营CF - 资本支出

### Step 4: Update Estimates

**Forward estimates adjustment:**

Based on current quarter results and management guidance:

- Update FY20XXE revenue, margins, EPS
- Adjust Q2-Q4 quarterly estimates
- Update annual consensus if material change
- Flag if guidance was provided

**Estimate change table:**

| Item | Old Estimate | New Estimate | Change | Driver |
|------|-------------|--------------|--------|--------|
| FY Revenue | | | | |
| FY Net Income | | | | |
| FY EPS | | | | |

### Step 5: Valuation Update

**Current valuation metrics:**
- Current stock price + daily change
- PE (动 / 静), PB, PS
- EV/EBITDA (if applicable)
- 52-week high/low, YTD performance
- Relative to sector median

**Post-earnings re-rating assessment:**
- Did multiple expand/contract?
- Is valuation now cheap/expensive vs history and peers?
- 目标价 adjustment rationale

### Step 6: Draft the Report

**Standard A-share earnings update structure:**

```
标题：[公司名称]（[代码]）[Q20XX / FY20XX] 业绩点评：[超预期/符合预期/低于预期]

一、业绩概览
  - 核心数据一览表
  - 同比/环比增速
  - 超出/低于一致预期幅度

二、收入分析
  - 收入增速分解
  - 分业务/分地区收入
  - 量价分析

三、利润分析
  - 毛利率变化及原因
  - 费用率分析
  - 净利润增速分解

四、资产负债表
  - 应收账款
  - 存货
  - 有息负债
  - 其他关注点

五、现金流量
  - 经营现金流
  - 资本支出
  - 自由现金流

六、估值与投资建议
  - 当前估值水平
  - 目标价调整
  - 评级维持/调整

七、风险提示
  - 行业政策风险
  - 原材料价格波动
  - 竞争加剧
  - 商誉减值风险
```

### Step 7: Quality Check

**Before delivering:**

- [ ] All numbers sourced from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare
- [ ] Variance table complete with actual/consensus/prior
- [ ] Beat/miss flagged with % surprise
- [ ] Key drivers identified and explained
- [ ] Forward estimates updated
- [ ] Valuation metrics current
- [ ] Risk factors listed (China-specific)
- [ ] Citations complete; unsourced items marked `[UNSOURCED]`

## China-Specific Elements

### Earnings Call (业绩说明会)
- Schedule: typically same day or next trading day after earnings release
- Location: 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易
- Format: online video/audio + text Q&A
- Key questions often from retail investors

### Regulatory Requirements
- 业绩预告 (earnings preview): required if variance >50%
- 业绩快报 (earnings flash): optional, typically 10 days before full report
- Full annual report: 4 months after year-end
- Semi-annual report: 2 months after H1
- Quarterly report: 1 month after quarter-end

### Accounting Nuances
- 扣非净利润 (non-GAAP net income) widely used by analysts
- 其他收益 (other income) can mask core operating performance
- 政府补助 (government subsidies) significant for some sectors
- 资产减值损失 (asset impairment) — flag if unexpectedly large
- 股份支付 (share-based compensation) — expensed immediately under CAS

### Market Context
- 涨跌停 limits affect post-earnings price action (±10% main board, ±20% 创业板/科创板)
- Northbound flow (北向资金) may react strongly to earnings
- Retail investor participation high → earnings can cause outsized moves

## Source Citations

**Format for data citations:**

```
Source: 巨潮资讯, [Comp