china-idea-generation

# china-idea-generation

## Purpose

Systematically surface new **A股投资机会** through quantitative screens, thematic analysis, and pattern recognition.

## Data Sources

### Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

```python
get_market_overview()                    → Top gainers, losers, most active
get_quote(ticker)                        → Price, PE, PB, market cap
get_historical_data(ticker)              → Price trends, momentum
get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Financial metrics
get_financials(ticker, "balance")        → Balance sheet health
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")      → Peer comparison
```

### Secondary Screening Data

| Data | Source | Use |
|------|--------|-----|
| 龙虎榜 (Dragon-Tiger list) | 东方财富 | Unusual activity, institutional interest |
| 北向资金 (Northbound flows) | 沪深港通 | Foreign investor sentiment |
| 融资融券 (Margin trading) | 交易所 | Leverage and sentiment |
| 股东人数变化 | 巨潮 | Institutional accumulation/distribution |
| 机构持仓 | 季报/F10 | Fund ownership trends |
| 大宗交易 (Block trades) | 交易所 | Smart money signals |

## Workflow

### Step 1: Define Screen Criteria

**Investment philosophy alignment:**
- Value vs Growth vs GARP vs Momentum
- Market cap preference (large / mid / small)
- Sector focus or sector-agnostic
- Liquidity requirements (turnover threshold)
- Risk tolerance (volatility, leverage, earnings stability)

**Screen parameters (A-share specific):**

| Parameter | Typical Range | Notes |
|-----------|--------------|-------|
| PE (TTM) | 5-50x | Avoid negative PE |
| PB | 0.5-5x | <1x may indicate distress |
| PS | 0.5-5x | For high-growth unprofitable |
| Market cap | >50亿 | Liquidity threshold |
| Daily turnover | >5000万 | Tradability |
| ROE | >10% | Quality filter |
| Debt/Equity | <100% | Financial health |
| Revenue growth | >10% | Growth filter |
| EPS growth | >15% | Earnings momentum |

### Step 2: Quantitative Screens

**Screen 1: Deep Value (深度价值)**

```
Filters:
- PE (TTM) < 15x AND PB < 1.5x
- ROE > 10% (past 3 years average)
- Debt/Equity < 80%
- Revenue growth > 0% (not declining)
- Market cap > 30亿

Output: Value candidates with potential mispricing
```

**Screen 2: Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)**

```
Filters:
- PEG < 1.0 (PE / growth rate)
- Revenue growth > 20%
- Gross margin > 30%
- ROE > 15%
- Market cap > 100亿

Output: Quality growth at reasonable multiples
```

**Screen 3: Momentum (趋势跟踪)**

```
Filters:
- Price above 20-day MA AND 60-day MA
- Price within 10% of 52-week high
- Volume above 20-day average
- RSI between 40-70 (not overbought)
- Upward earnings revision

Output: Momentum names in uptrends
```

**Screen 4: Turnaround (困境反转)**

```
Filters:
- Recent loss or margin compression
- New management / strategy announced
- Order book recovering
- Debt restructuring completed
- Insiders buying

Output: Potential turnaround candidates
```

**Screen 5: Dividend Yield (高股息)**

```
Filters:
- Dividend yield > 3%
- Payout ratio < 60%
- FCF positive and stable
- Debt/Equity < 100%
- Stable earnings history

Output: High-quality income names
```

**Screen 6: Special Situations (事件驱动)**

```
Filters:
- Lock-up expiry within 3 months (限售解禁)
- M&A announcement pending
- Regulatory catalyst (集采结果, etc.)
- Index inclusion/exclusion
- STAR/ChiNext eligibility

Output: Event-driven opportunities
```

### Step 3: Thematic Research

**Identify emerging themes:**

| Theme Type | Examples (A-share) | Data Sources |
|-----------|-------------------|-------------|
| Policy-driven | 国产替代, 新基建, 双碳 | 政策文件, 部委公告 |
| Technology | AI应用, 自动驾驶, 机器人 | 技术进展, 订单公告 |
| Demographics | 老龄化, 少子化 | 人口数据, 消费数据 |
| Consumption | 消费升级, 国货崛起 | 零售数据, 品牌调研 |
| Industrial | 高端制造, 专精特新 | 行业数据, 政策 |

**Thematic screening approach:**
1. Define theme and investable universe
2. Map A-share companies to theme
3. Rank by exposure and quality
4. Identify pure-plays vs beneficiaries

### Step 4: Technical Analysis

**A-share technical considerations:**

| Indicator | Use |
|-----------|-----|
| 均线 (Moving averages) | Trend direction (5/10/20/60/120 day) |
| MACD | Momentum and trend changes |
| RSI | Overbought/oversold |
| KDJ | Short-term momentum |
| 成交量 (Volume) | Confirmation of moves |
| 龙虎榜 | Institutional activity |
| 北向资金 | Foreign flows |

**Chart patterns to watch:**
- 突破 (breakout) — above resistance
- 回踩 (pullback to support) — entry opportunity
- 双底/头肩 (double bottom/head & shoulders) — reversal signals
- 量价背离 (volume-price divergence) — trend exhaustion

### Step 5: Fundamental Deep Dive

**For each candidate:**

1. **Business model review**: How does company make money?
2. **Financial health**: Balance sheet, cash flow, earnings quality
3. **Competitive position**: Market share, moat, pricing power
4. **Management quality**: Track record, capital allocation
5. **Valuation**: vs peers, vs history, vs international peers
6. **Catalyst**: What could re-rate the stock?

**Red flag checklist:**
- 商誉占比过高 (>30% of equity)
- 应收账款增速 > 收入增速
- 经营现金流持续为负
- 大股东质押比例过高 (>50%)
- 审计意见非标准无保留
- 频繁变更会计师事务所
- 关联交易占比高

### Step 6: Build the Ideas List

**Standard format:**

| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Idea Type | Thesis | Catalyst | Risk | Conviction |
|------|--------|---------|-------|-----------|--------|----------|------|------------|
| {{RANK}} | {{TICKER}} | {{COMPANY_NAME}} | {{SECTOR}} | {{DIRECTION}} | {{THESIS}} | {{CATALYST}} | {{RISK}} | {{CONVICTION}} |
| Example | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 白酒 | Long | 批价稳+动销旺+分红高 | Q1业绩超预期 | 批价下行 | High |
| 2 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

**Conviction levels:**
- **High**: Strong thesis, clear catalyst, limited downside
- **Medium**: Good thesis, catalyst timeline uncertain
- **Low**: Exploratory, needs more research

### Step 7: Monitor & Update

**Ongoing tracking:**
- Weekly price and news updates
- Catalyst tracking (china-catalyst-calendar)
- Thesis validation / invalidation
- Position sizing recommendations

**Update triggers:**
- Earnings results
- Material news (M&A, guidance, regulation)