prd-v09-launch-metrics

# Launch Metrics

Position in workflow: v0.9 GTM Strategy → **v0.9 Launch Metrics** → v0.9 Feedback Loop Setup

## Execution Mode

Default is **standard**. See [`.claude/rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md`](../../rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md) for selection logic.

| Mode | What this skill produces |
|------|--------------------------|
| **quick** | 3 KPIs (one each for Reach/Acquisition/Activation); Day 7 targets; basic dashboard |
| **standard** | Full funnel (Reach → Referral); Day 1/7/30 targets; dashboards + alerts |
| **deep** | Full funnel + tier targets + Day 1/7/30/90 + product-type calibration + cohort analysis |

## Consumes

This skill requires prior work from v0.3-v0.9:

- **KPI-\* outcome entries from v0.3** (from v0.3 Outcome Definition) — Baseline KPI- entries define success metrics for the product; launch-specific KPI- entries are calibrated variants
- **GTM-\* campaign specifications** (from v0.9 GTM Strategy) — GTM channels inform launch-specific KPI- tracking (e.g., Product Hunt channel → KPI for PH-originated signups); timeline defines metric collection windows (Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90)
- **BR-\* product type** (from v0.2 Product Type Classification) — Product type (Clone/Unbundle/Undercut/Slice/Innovation) determines metric targets and benchmarks (Fast Follow = higher activation expected, lower retention)
- **CFD-\* market benchmarks** (from v0.1-v0.2 research) — Competitive analysis and market data inform realistic KPI- targets (e.g., "developer tools average 30-50% activation")
- **DEP-\* deployment infrastructure** (from v0.8 Release Planning) — Deployment baselines from staging inform KPI- thresholds (e.g., error rate baseline → activation threshold)
- **MON-\* monitoring setup** (from v0.8 Monitoring Setup) — Infrastructure metrics (latency, error rate) inform KPI- dashboards and alert conditions during launch

This skill assumes GTM- entries are complete and tracking infrastructure is configured.

## Produces

This skill creates/updates:

- **KPI-\* launch-specific entries** (launch metrics with targets and thresholds) — Funnel metrics (Reach → Acquisition → Activation → Retention → Revenue → Referral) with Day 1/7/30/90 targets, action thresholds (Red/Yellow/Green), and channel attribution
- **Launch dashboard specification** — Visual layout and refresh rate for real-time launch monitoring; links KPI- to MON- infrastructure
- **Metric tracking schema** — Event definitions and tracking setup for conversion funnel

All KPI- entries for launch are **measurement specifications**, not confidence-based. They are:
- **Actionable** (Red/Yellow/Green thresholds trigger specific responses)
- **Calibrated** (targets account for product type and market benchmarks from CFD-)
- **Traceable** (each KPI- links to GTM- channels and v0.3 baseline KPI-XX)
- **Measurable** (specific event tracking, data sources, calculation formulas)
- **Time-bound** (explicit timeframes: Day 1, Week 1, Month 1)

Example KPI- entries:
```markdown
KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing website from all GTM- channels
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics 4 / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000 (from GTM-002 PH expectations + GTM-007 paid channel)
  Day 7: 25,000 (cumulative from all GTM channels)
  Day 30: 50,000 (post-launch momentum)
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor benchmarks show 5-10% market awareness for Fast Follow), CFD-008 (our GTM reach model projects this based on channel scale)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow — higher reach expected due to known category

Tracking:
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1 (channel distribution problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (channel underperformance)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website), GTM-008 (Paid ads), GTM-010 (Email)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)

---

KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified, profile created)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500 (5-10% conversion from reach)
  Day 7: 2,000 (extrapolated from Day 1 + momentum)
  Day 30: 5,000 (post-launch plateau)
  Day 90: 15,000 (month 3 growth)

Evidence: CFD-030 (developer SaaS benchmarks show 5-10% landing-to-signup), CFD-031 (our onboarding tested with 8% conversion)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected (higher than average because users understand category)

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed { source, campaign_id, user_segment }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch — escalate GTM)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction — investigate landing page)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page), GTM-005 (Email), GTM-008 (Ads)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups baseline from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value Achievement)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first core action (generate code suggestion) within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

Targets:
  Day 1: 40% (from CFD-035 developer tool benchmarks)
  Day 7: 45% (slight improvement with onboarding refinement)
  Day 30: 50% (post-launch optimizations)
  Day 90: 55% (mature product experience)

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools: 30-50%), CFD-015 (our UJ-001 usability test showed 45% completed core action)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users already understand AI coding assists)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved { user_id, action_type, time_to_value_seconds