prd-v10-chasm-adoption-moore

# Crossing the Chasm (Moore) — the v1.0 Spine

Position in workflow: v0.9 Feedback Loop Setup → **v1.0 Crossing the Chasm (Moore)** → all v1.0 work

## Execution Mode

Default is **deep** (this is a major strategic decision; quick mode is for hypothesis pre-work only). See [`.claude/rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md`](../../rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md).

| Mode | What this skill produces |
|------|--------------------------|
| **quick** | Stage assessment only (ADO-STAGE-*); beachhead candidate hypothesis |
| **standard** | Stage assessment + beachhead segment + top 3 whole-product gaps + reference-account candidate list |
| **deep** (default) | Full stage assessment with evidence + sharpened beachhead with in/not-in criteria + complete whole-product gap analysis + reference-account cultivation plan + chasm-crossing risk register |

## Framework: Moore's Technology Adoption Lifecycle

From *Crossing the Chasm* (Geoffrey Moore, 1991, updated 2014). The bestselling tech-strategy book of the 1990s, and still the canonical model for understanding why early traction doesn't predict mass adoption.

### The lifecycle

| Stage | % of market | Buyer mindset | What they buy |
|-------|-------------|---------------|----------------|
| **Innovators** (2.5%) | Tinkerers; technology enthusiasts | Want to try new things; tolerate incomplete products | Vision, technical depth, access |
| **Early Adopters** (13.5%) | Visionaries | Want strategic advantage from non-mainstream tech | Bold vision + first-mover ROI |
| **— THE CHASM —** | — | — | — |
| **Early Majority** (34%) | Pragmatists | Want reliable productivity gains from proven solutions | **Whole product** + segment-specific references |
| **Late Majority** (34%) | Conservatives | Want safe, mature defaults | Market leadership, low risk |
| **Laggards** (16%) | Skeptics | Resist change | (Generally not worth targeting) |

### The chasm

The gap between **Early Adopters** and **Early Majority** is the chasm. Most products die here. The reason: visionary buyers (who got you to early traction) actively *want* the cutting-edge, while pragmatist buyers want to be the second penguin off the iceberg — they need to see peers in their segment succeeding first.

### The chasm-crossing playbook

1. **Pick a beachhead segment** — A single, narrowly-defined sub-segment of the early majority. Not "small businesses." Specific: "freight-forwarding firms with 50-200 employees in the US Pacific Northwest using ERP X."
2. **Build the whole product for that beachhead** — Pragmatists don't buy your core product; they buy your core + integrations + reference customers + support + training + everything else they need to deploy. Identify and close the gaps.
3. **Cultivate references in segment** — A reference from outside the beachhead is worthless to a beachhead buyer. Three references *inside* the beachhead is the unlock.
4. **Concentrate, then expand** — Don't try to cross the chasm broadly. Win the beachhead, then use it as a reference base to win adjacent segments ("bowling alley" stage).

## Consumes

- **CFD-\* customer evidence** (all stages, especially v0.9 post-launch feedback) — Composition of paying customers; stage signal
- **PER-\* personas** (sharpened by v0.9 Positioning) — Beachhead is a sharper variant of an existing PER-
- **GTM-\* positioning** (from v0.9 Positioning) — Best-fit segment is the *starting point* for beachhead selection; beachhead is usually tighter
- **GTM-\* offer card** (from v0.9 Offer Construction) — Offer must match beachhead expectations (pragmatists need different guarantees than visionaries)
- **FEA-\* features** (from v0.3) — Whole-product gap analysis cross-references current feature set
- **KPI-\* baseline metrics** (from v0.3 + v0.9) — Stage assessment uses retention shape, NPS by segment, conversion rate
- **BR-PRICING-\*** (from v0.3 + v0.9) — Pragmatist buyers expect different pricing/contract terms than visionaries

## Produces

- **ADO-STAGE-\* entries** in `SoT/SoT.ADOPTION.md` — Current adoption-stage assessment with evidence
- **ADO-BEACHHEAD-\* entries** — Beachhead segment definition with strict in/not-in criteria
- **ADO-WHOLE-\* entries** — Whole-product gaps (one per gap, with owner and close date)
- **ADO-REF-\* entries** — Reference-account targets (one per candidate, with consent + placement status)
- **CFD-\* gaps surfaced** — When stage evidence is thin or beachhead selection lacks data, log as research gaps

## Execution

### Step 1: Assess current adoption stage

Audit current paying-customer composition. For each customer, classify by stage indicators:

| Indicator | Innovator/Early Adopter | Early Majority |
|-----------|------------------------|-----------------|
| Sales motion | Direct founder relationship | Asked for demo / pricing / case studies |
| Setup tolerance | "I'll figure it out" | "Show me the integration with X" |
| Reference need | None | Asked "who else in my industry uses this?" |
| Renewal motivation | "We're betting on this" | "It saves us $X/month" |
| Procurement | Single buyer | Procurement / SOC2 / contracts review |

Stage signal:
- **Innovators / Early Adopters**: >70% of paid customers show visionary indicators
- **At the chasm**: Mixed composition; new inbound asking pragmatist questions ("references", "integrations", "SOC2"); flat MRR despite growing leads
- **Bowling Alley** (post-chasm): >50% of new customers in one identifiable segment
- **Tornado**: Rapid acquisition across multiple segments
- **Main Street**: Stable growth, focus on expansion and retention

**Deliverable**: One ADO-STAGE-* entry with evidence, stage classification, and confidence score.

### Step 2: Pick the beachhead segment [standard+]

Generate 3–5 candidate beachhead segments. Score each:

| Criterion | Question | Weight |
|-----------|----------|--------|
| **Pragmatist density** | Is this segment mostly pragmatists (already buying mature solutions)? | High |
| **Whole-product proximity** | Ho