alternative-analysis

# Alternative Analysis Strategy

CIA SAT alternative analysis: generate multiple competing interpretations to prevent anchoring on a single explanation.

## Method

1. **alternative-futures** builds 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base
2. What-If Analysis: systematically vary key variables to explore outcome sensitivity
3. Four Ways of Seeing: examine artifact through lenses of opportunity, risk, structure, and agency
4. **probe-execution** tests each alternative against available evidence
5. Diagnostic indicators identified that would discriminate between alternatives
6. **finding-aggregation** compares explanatory power across alternatives

## Budget Table

| Parameter | S | M | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack vectors | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| Probing rounds | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| Personas | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Assumption checks | 5 | 10 | 20 |

## Orchestration

```
threat-surface-mapping → [identify variable dimensions]
→ alternative-futures (generate 2-4 scenarios)
→ [for each alternative]:
    attack-vector-generation (find discriminating tests)
    → probe-execution (test alternative)
→ finding-aggregation → attack-resilience-scoring
```

## Subagents

- threat-surface-mapping (dimension identification)
- alternative-futures (scenario generation)
- attack-vector-generation (discriminating test design)
- probe-execution (alternative testing)
- finding-aggregation (comparative synthesis)

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## Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Tactic | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| adversarial-roleplay | Tactic: Construct detailed hostile persona, attack artifact from that persona's perspective, record successful attack paths for aggregation. |
| structured-attack-campaign | Tactic: Full attack lifecycle — threat surface enumeration, attack vector generation, systematic probing, and finding aggregation across all surfaces. |

## Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use |
| --- | --- |
| alternative-futures | Generate 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base, each representing a plausible alternative to the artifact's conclusions. |
| attack-vector-generation | Generate specific attack strategies for a given threat surface, producing concrete probes that can be executed. |
| finding-aggregation | Aggregate, deduplicate, and classify findings from multiple probes into a coherent vulnerability report. |
| probe-execution | Execute a single attack probe against an artifact, record the result with evidence and severity classification. |
| threat-surface-mapping | Enumerate all attackable surfaces of an artifact — logical, empirical, methodological, social, and practical dimensions. |

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