seiche

# SEICHE

[![sealed record](https://img.shields.io/endpoint?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.seiche.info%2Fapi%2Fbadge%2Frecord)](https://api.seiche.info/api/notary)

> A **seiche** is a standing wave in an enclosed body of water — invisible from the
> shore, until it sloshes over the edge. Funding stress behaves the same way.

**Seiche is a free, open source (AGPL-3.0) funding-stress, positioning and
divergence terminal** for the dollar
funding system — US money markets, the Treasury capital-market complex, the global
basins connected to them through the swap lines, and the offshore-dollar crypto
basin moored to the T-bill market through stablecoins. Zero data cost: built
entirely on free, keyless public APIs (FRED, NY Fed Markets, OFR STFM, Treasury
FiscalData, CFTC, ECB Data Portal, DeFiLlama, Coinbase Exchange).

Every 2025–26 stress event (Sep 15 2025 tax-date squeeze, Oct/Dec 2025 record SRF
draws, Apr 2025 basis unwind) was front-run by *plumbing* signals while price screens
looked calm. Incumbent tools either have the data with no opinion (Bloomberg, $32k/yr)
or authority with no synthesis (OFR/NY Fed dashboards). Seiche is the opinionated
fusion layer: forward-looking, alerting-ready, provenance-honest — and v2 adds the
layer none of them have: **honest evidence about itself**.

## The lab

Seiche is one of three altitudes in a single liquidity lab that fills that gap:
**Seiche** reads the plumbing, **[LiquiLens](https://liquilens.in)** ranks the
institutions standing on it, and **Undertow** prices market liquidity itself
(who provides depth in each segment, what an exit at position size costs
today). The wiring between the three is real, not a brochure: the desk
assistant pulls the LiquiLens failure board over MCP, the MARKET tab renders
Undertow's published pack live, and the Windfetch engine reads the FETCH pack
built in the Undertow repo back into this board. On names: the internal
composite engine called "undertow" (critical slowing down,
`engines/undertow.py`) is unrelated to the Undertow sister product.

## v2 "Deep Water" — twenty-two engines, eight analytics layers, twelve tabs

> **v2.3 "Letters of Marque"** (built in tandem across two sessions) adds the
> forecast layer and the layer that makes every other layer accountable:
> **Undertow** (critical slowing down — the basin's damping, measured on
> ordinary days), the **Swell Forecast** (the funding-stress forward curve —
> P(pop ≥ x bp) by date, six weeks out, from the public forcing calendar),
> **The Stack** (walk-forward ensemble of every event forecaster — rule, ML,
> analogs, Swell — plus The Tell, with a disagreement gauge), **The Book**
> (HELM tab — explicit daily positions on 2y/10y duration proxies, S&P and
> BTC over a T-bill base, walk-forward P&L with costs, block-bootstrap Sharpe
> CIs and mandatory benchmarks, verdict printed even when it loses), a
> **hash-chained as-published track record** shipped inside the static
> publish (nobody, including the operator, can quietly rewrite a bad month),
> and the **Far Basin** — Palimpsest's censorship-fear channel
> (palimpsest.info), a policy confession signal no market data vendor
> carries, honestly quarantined until it accrues testable history.

| Engine | Question it answers |
|---|---|
| **Kink Engine** | Where does reserve scarcity start, and how many days away is it at the current drain rate? (live hockey-stick fit of SOFR−IORB vs reserves/GDP) |
| **Liquidity Weather** | What does the reserve path look like 6 weeks out — and which auction-settlement days land on thin ice? (TGA seasonal model + Fed drift + settlement calendar + backtested error bands) |
| **Tail Seismograph** | Are the P99 tails of SOFR/TGCR/BGCR detaching from the median — the first tell of every squeeze? |
| **Echo Engine** | Does today's 30-day trajectory rhyme with the run-up to any historical stress episode? |
| **Tide Tables** ★ | What happened next, every time the water looked like this? Markets rhyme, so forecast like a tide table: the k nearest analogs of today's trailing state trajectory over ALL history (labeled or not, expanding-z — no look-ahead) publish their actual forward spread paths as a fan, the share followed by a funding event within 5bd (Wilson CI vs climatology), a NOVELTY gauge ("the board has never looked like this" is its own signal, and flags the fan as extrapolation), and a walk-forward hindcast that says honestly whether analogs beat the base rate. |
| **RV X-Ray** | How big is the leveraged Treasury RV complex, and what does a 5/15/30bp shock do to it? |
| **Crowding** | Where are leveraged funds most crowded relative to their own history (UST curve, SOFR/FF futures, S&P)? |
| **Auction Digestion** | Is the market choking on Treasury supply? |
| **Warehouse** | How full is the primary-dealer balance sheet — the shock absorber of last resort? (NY Fed PD stats by maturity bucket) |
| **Resonance Engine** ★ | *The seiche made literal:* does the same calendar forcing (month-end, quarter-end, year-end, tax dates) produce a bigger slosh than it used to? Amplification = damping loss = fragility rising while levels look calm. |
| **Undertow** ★ | The free-decay half of the resonance physics: critical slowing down (Scheffer et al.), measured continuously. Rising lag-1 autocorrelation + variance of the detrended spread/tail and a stretching recovery half-life after everyday pops = the basin losing damping on days when NOTHING is happening. Expanding percentiles only; weighted into the composite as structural evidence. |
| **Swell Forecast** ★ | The funding-stress **forward curve** — a term structure nobody publishes, not even the $32k terminals: P(SOFR−IORB pop ≥ 2/5/10/20bp) for each of the next 42 business days, built from the PUBLIC forcing calendar (turn/tax/settlement days each keep their full expanding distribution of historical pops — small severities lend the rare big ones statistical mass), lifted by the live damping state and announced coupon settlements. Compounds to P(event by horizon), walk-forward validated vs climatology with the reliability table printed, and the verdict self-demotes to "trust the dates, not the levels" when the levels stop earning it. |
| **Hydrophone Array** ★ | How connected is the plumbing right now? (absorption ratio over 11 funding series + a live lead-lag map of which pipe is upstream) |
| **Global Basin Coupling** ★ | Are the US, euro-area, UK, India (FX channel) and crypto basins moving as one tide? Plus the global confession channel: USD swap-line draws (test operations excluded). |
| **Stablecoin Moorings** ★ | The offshore-dollar basin's tie lines: peg deviations (USDT history + live board), total-circulation flows ($200B+ of T-bills behind them), and the 24/7 BTC canary — crypto trades when funding markets sleep. |
| **ML Lab** | Learned P(funding event within 5bd): walk-forward with a 5bd boundary embargo, benchmarked against climatology AND the rule-based index, reliability table + decision-utility scoring published. Verdict at build: ranks better than the rule (OOS AUROC 0.826 vs 0.806; 0.812 on the orthogonal feature set) but probability levels don't beat climatology — use for ranking/alerting, not literal odds. The verdict self-updates. |
| **Station-Keeping** ★ | Orbit-determination transfer: propagate the reserve system's expected state (fiscal seasonal, calendar buckets, trailing drift), CUSUM the innovation residuals, flag unmodeled "burns" — debt-ceiling cash games, RMP pace changes — often before they're narrated. Doubles as the Weather model's health monitor. |
| **Riptide** ★ | The pop prognosis — the one morning the whole desk asks the same question, answered: *chop or current?* Every declustered spread pop becomes a trial; the discriminators (RRP co-sign — a pop WITHOUT its mechanical quarter-end co-move is genuine scarcity, the 2025 signature; calendar bucket; damping state) feed a deliberately tiny walk-forward logistic that classifies the live pop as calendar mechanics or the start of a squeeze, with P(sticky) and P(escalates) validated pop-by-pop against the base rate. Speaks only when there is a live pop; flat water is itself the reading. |
| **The Breakwater** ★ | The rescuer modeled — the feature no forecaster ships: the Fed is not weather, it is a PLAYER, and every intervention in the public record is a confession of where its pain threshold sat that day. A zero-parameter revealed-preference catalog (repo ops '19, QE '20, SRF '21, BTFP '23, QT taper '24, RMPs '25) replayed against the board as of the day before each announcement yields the revealed threshold and a live **rescue proximity** gauge — which cuts both ways, and the engine says so: a forecast miss after an intervention is a save, not a false alarm. |
| **Bathymetry** ★ | The basin floor mapped from the water's motion — the physics program end to end. The daily pop statistic is treated as a diffusion and its dynamics are RECONSTRUCTED from the data (Kramers–Moyal / empirical Langevin): drift → the **effective potential** (the well the spread rests in, its restoring stiffness, and the escape barrier printed in units of thermal energy k_BT); the binned transition operator → the **quantum-dual energy spectrum** (Fokker–Planck ↔ Schrödinger: stationary density = ground state, eigenvalue moduli = energy levels, spectral gap = inverse of the slowest relaxation time — critical slowing down measured operator-theoretically, corroborating Undertow by an independent estimator); stationary probability currents → **entropy production** (Schnakenberg, nats/day — the arrow of time: a calm basin relaxes, a stressed one is pumped); and absorbing-boundary **first passage** → P(funding event within h bd | today's state) and the expected business days to the next event, Kramers' escape problem solved exactly on the measured landscape, no simulation. Expanding counts only, walk-forward validated vs climatology, and the daily probability joins the Stack as its own member with its own record. |